Intel’s 80% Rally Powered by Nvidia’s $5B Stake, 18A Fab Margin Plan
Intel shares are up 80% in 2025 after Nvidia’s $5 billion stake purchase (214.7 million shares at $23.28) and U.S. government investment. In 2026 Intel will shift leading-edge output from TSMC into its Intel 3 and 18A fabs—leveraging backside power delivery and high-NA EUV—and seeks external foundry clients.
1. Intel’s 2025 Rally and Market Rebound
After a challenging 2024 that saw Intel lose nearly 60% of its market value and exit the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the chipmaker achieved an 80% gain in 2025. Investor enthusiasm was driven by renewed confidence in artificial intelligence demand and a series of capital infusions, lifting Intel’s market capitalization from under $100 billion at the start of the year to approximately $173 billion by year-end. Since its Dow removal, shares have climbed roughly 40%, outpacing the performance of its replacement, underscoring a sharp reversal in sentiment toward the company.
2. Strategic Capital Partners and Share Purchase
In September, NVIDIA committed to acquire 214.7 million Intel shares for $5 billion, a transaction cleared by U.S. regulators in late December. This strategic stake—alongside investments from the U.S. government and SoftBank—provides Intel with critical liquidity to support fab expansions and R&D. The deal also formalizes a multi-generation product development partnership aimed at accelerating data center and PC workloads, reinforcing Intel’s position in AI compute infrastructure.
3. 2026 Outlook: Fab Utilization, 18A Node and Technology Leadership
Under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, Intel is set to pivot from outsourcing leading-edge production to leveraging its own Intel 3 and 18A fabs, which entered high-volume manufacturing in late 2024 and late 2025 respectively. With current foundry losses of $2.3 billion driven by underutilization, management projects a steady margin inflection as wafer starts ramp through 2026. Key to profitability will be the rollout of backside power delivery on the 18A node—moving power rails to the chip’s rear to boost transistor density—and potential integration of high-NA EUV lithography, both innovations aimed at reclaiming process leadership and attracting external foundry customers, with Apple and major GPU developers cited as likely early adopters.