Intel Upgraded to Buy with $135 Price Target and $6 EPS Outlook
INTC•Intel received an upgrade to Buy with its price target raised to $135 based on a projected $6.24 per share earnings power by 2030, up from prior $3–4 estimates. Analysts forecast server CPU sales exceeding $40 billion by 2030 and highlighted pipeline foundry deals including Apple M-Series wafers and Cadence IP collaboration.
1. Analyst Upgrade and Valuation Rationale
Intel shares were upgraded from Underperform to Buy and assigned a $135 price target, reflecting a reassessment of its long-term earnings potential. The new target applies a 25× multiple to a projected $6.24 per share earnings power in 2030, discounted back two years.
2. EPS Projection and Multiple
The upgrade raises Intel’s expected earnings power to over $6 per share by 2030, compared to prior estimates of $3–4. Applying a 25× multiple to the 2030 EPS estimate underpins the current price target, signaling confidence in sustained profit growth beyond 2028.
3. Growth Drivers: Server CPU and Foundry
Analysts foresee Intel’s server CPU business generating over $40 billion in revenue by 2030, capturing roughly 25% of a $170 billion total addressable market. The foundry pipeline includes potential deals for Apple M-Series wafers, MediaTek TPU wafers, Terafab IP, ARM-based server CPUs and collaboration on the 14A manufacturing node.
4. Risks and Ownership
Key risks include intensifying competition from ARM-based and custom chip designs, potential moderation in AI capital spending and execution challenges in advanced process ramp. Intel’s low institutional ownership—16% of S&P 500 funds—presents both a catalyst for further accumulation and a vulnerability if confidence wanes.
