For some U.S., Israeli and regional officials, such strains strengthen hopes that economic pressure could eventually carry political consequences inside Iran by triggering unrest, widening rifts within the leadership and weakening its grip on power.
Others remain sceptical that economic and military coercion will produce a political rupture, pointing to decades of failed efforts to destabilise the Islamic Republic and Tehran's willingness to suppress dissent. They argue Iran's rulers may again prove more resilient than their adversaries expect.
Dennis Ross, a former U.S. negotiator, said Washington may be interpreting Iran's economic distress as evidence of strategic success when the reality is more complicated. Tehran remains determined to demonstrate it can control Hormuz, but appears to be calibrating its use of force while keeping further escalation in reserve.
The Revolutionary Guards may believe Iran can absorb the economic pain and outlast the pressure rather than compromise, Ross said.
"The Iranians have consistently surprised us in terms of their resiliency," he added, saying he doubted economic and military pressure alone would force a retreat. Hardliners, he said, may believe they can endure and ultimately secure what they want.
Resilience may depend as much on public tolerance as Tehran's ability to absorb economic hardship, said Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
"Of course, the economic squeeze raises the risk of public unrest, but for now, a wartime mentality appears to have a significant hold over the population," said Ozcelik. "Foreign military intervention, civilian casualties and the perception of a wider civilization confrontation with a U.S.-led order are sustaining a degree of 'Iran-first' patriotic support, tolerance or simply patience with the regime."
The result is a more stubborn impasse than Washington may have anticipated. Economic pressure is deepening the pain, but Tehran's powerful Revolutionary Guards may see endurance, backed by the threat of escalation, as leverage rather than a reason to concede.
The key question is not whether Iran is hurting, but whether it is hurting enough to compromise before either side slips toward another confrontation, the regional sources said.
Ross said the clearest path to a deal may lie in the dispute over shipping fees through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran could abandon any demand for a toll while retaining the right to charge for legitimate navigational, security or environmental services, he said.
Such an arrangement could give both sides a claim to victory, allowing Tehran to step back without appearing to capitulate.
"If you could announce that the Strait were reopened," Ross said, "I think Trump would do a deal."
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