iRhythm Projects $870-$880M 2026 Revenue as Shares Plunge 20% on Zio MCT Delay
iRhythm says 2025 revenue will top $740M guidance after record Q4 and forecasts 2026 revenue of $870-$880M (17%-18% growth) with an 11.5%-12.5% EBITDA margin. Shares plunged 20% on a Zio MCT delay to 2027, but William Blair maintains Outperform, adds stock to its Conviction List and assigns a seven-times-2026-sales valuation.
1. Shares Rally on Heavy Volume and Upward Estimate Revisions
iRhythm Holdings shares climbed 5.0% during the most recent trading session, supported by volume that was approximately 30% higher than the 30-day average. This uptick follows four consecutive weeks of positive revisions to consensus earnings estimates, with analysts raising full-year 2025 EPS projections by an average of 8% over that period. Institutional buying accounted for nearly 60% of total volume, according to block trade data, suggesting growing confidence among large investors in the company’s near-term profitability trajectory.
2. Preliminary Q4 Performance Exceeds Guidance, 2026 Outlook Shapes Growth Narrative
The company reported that full-year 2025 revenue is expected to surpass the high end of its prior $720–740 million guidance, driven by record Zio monitor placements during the fourth quarter. For fiscal 2026, iRhythm projects revenue of $870–880 million, representing year-over-year growth of 17–18% versus a consensus street forecast of $863 million. Management also targets an adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 11.5–12.5%, underscoring a focus on scaling operational leverage as adoption of its diagnostic platform accelerates in primary care and population health settings.
3. Analyst Reaction: Selloff Deemed Overblown, Valuation Opportunity Highlighted
Despite a roughly 20% share price selloff following confirmation of a Zio MCT launch delay into 2027 and guidance that slightly trailed street expectations, William Blair analyst Brandon Vazquez maintains an Outperform rating. He attributes the pullback to short-term disappointment over the timing shift and sees limited regulatory risk, noting management’s confidence in addressing any FDA feedback within the next 12 months. At about 7 times projected 2026 sales, Vazquez has added the stock to his Conviction List, calling the reset in valuation a compelling entry point for investors focused on long-term growth drivers.