iShares Silver Trust ETF Rallies 190%, Backed by Supply Deficits and EV Demand

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The iShares Silver Trust ETF has surged about 190% over the past year, hitting an all-time high in early 2026 and delivering a 12% gain year-to-date through January 13. Structural supply deficits—70% of silver as a base-metal byproduct—and a projected 3.4% CAGR in automotive silver demand through 2031 underpin industrial demand from EV and solar sectors.

1. Structural Supply Constraints and Industrial Demand

SLV investors face a unique supply environment in which approximately 70% of silver output is tied to base metal byproducts, limiting the ability of miners to ramp up production in response to price signals. Analysts forecast a persistent structural deficit through 2026, driven by the inelastic nature of supply and growing industrial applications. Electric vehicle manufacturers are expected to drive automotive silver demand at a compound annual growth rate of 3.4% through 2031, while the solar photovoltaic sector is projected to consume an additional 150 million ounces of silver over the next five years. These factors combine to underscore a fundamental imbalance that could support higher SLV prices as market inventories tighten.

2. ETF Performance and Investor Positioning

The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has outpaced major equity benchmarks over the past year, delivering a nearly 190% total return and reaching all-time net asset highs. With an annual expense ratio of 0.50%, SLV provides a cost-effective proxy for direct silver exposure, attracting both retail and institutional flows. Year-to-date, inflows into SLV total over $4 billion, reflecting heightened risk aversion and a flight to precious metals. Portfolio managers now allocate on average 3% of assets to SLV, up from 1.5% twelve months ago, signaling growing conviction in silver’s role as a strategic diversifier amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Sources

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