It takes two to make a ceasefire

Oil markets were choppy after Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, which surprised Ukraine and had not been confirmed by Russia. Analysts suspected he was trying to make a deal real by announcing it, while Russia continued strikes on Ukrainian power infrastructure. Brent fell almost 2% to around $103 a barrel on the possibility of additional Russian supply.

Trump’s proposal included increasing Russian diesel exports to the United States and global markets. The article noted that Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries had left Russia short of diesel for its own needs, the US is the world’s largest diesel exporter, and importing Russian energy is illegal for the US while the war continues. The first 300,000 tons promised would amount to less than one day of US use.

US bank earnings begin Tuesday, with about 70% of S&P 500 companies reporting this month. Average expectations are for 30% earnings-per-share growth, with companies benefiting from AI infrastructure spending accounting for more than half; hyperscaler capital spending is expected to rise 116% year over year. Wednesday’s US CPI is expected to show headline inflation of 3.7% and core inflation of 2.5%; futures put the chance of a rate hike this month at 18%.