Jefferies Flags 13% Growth Estimate as Overly Aggressive, Holds at $22 PT
Jefferies flagged consensus H2 2026 revenue estimates for The Trade Desk—implying 13% gross spend growth—as overly aggressive and warned further cuts are likely. He modeled Q1 revenue at 10% year-on-year, saw limited upside to a Q2 12% estimate and kept a Hold rating with a $22 price target.
1. Caution on Second-Half 2026 Estimates
James Heaney warned that consensus forecasts for H2 2026 imply a 300 basis point jump to 13% year-on-year gross spend growth, deeming this level too aggressive given the roughly 10% growth in full-year 2025 and forecasting further downward revisions.
2. Near-Term Revenue Modeling and Rating
Jefferies projected Q1 revenue growth at 10% year-on-year inline with guidance, allowing for a potential 1–2% beat, but sees limited upside to Street’s 12% Q2 estimate and has maintained a Hold rating.
3. Structural Headwinds Weighing on Outlook
The firm highlighted key headwinds including intensifying competition from Amazon, emerging AI-native ad platforms capturing experimental budgets, management turnover, and elevated stock-based compensation pressure on long-term profitability.
4. Skepticism Over OpenAI Partnership
Analyst skepticism extends to any anticipated partnership with OpenAI, with Jefferies regarding such collaboration as unlikely to materially alter The Trade Desk’s revenue trajectory.