Jefferies Holds Shopify at $132.20 with 25-29% Q4 Sales Growth Forecast

SHOPSHOP

Shopify shares have plunged 38% from peak and are down 16% year-to-date in 2026 as investors reassess valuation despite last year's strong performance. Jefferies assigned a Hold rating and forecasts Q4 2025 sales growth of 25-29% with gross profit up 20-25%.

1. CEO Comments on AI’s Role

Shopify stands to benefit from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s recent assertion that artificial intelligence will complement rather than replace existing software platforms. Huang emphasized that AI tools will be integrated into established ecosystems, a viewpoint that reinforces Shopify’s strategy of embedding machine learning features into its e-commerce solutions. This endorsement from a leading AI authority bolsters investor confidence in Shopify’s ongoing investments in intelligent merchandising and automated back-office tools.

2. Year-to-Date Performance and Investment Opportunity

Shopify’s share performance is down significantly this year, reflecting broader market pressures on high-growth software firms. Having retraced more than a third from its previous peak, the stock is now viewed by some analysts as oversold. The pullback has coincided with Shopify’s announcement of new AI-driven seller tools, presenting a potential entry point for long-term investors who believe in the secular shift toward digitized commerce.

3. Jefferies Rating and Analyst Consensus

Jefferies recently revised its rating on Shopify to “Hold,” citing a balanced risk-reward profile following the recent correction. The firm highlighted Shopify’s leadership in agentic commerce—where automated systems execute seller tasks—and its deepening AI roadmap as key positives. Other brokerages have also shifted their outlooks, with several upgrading their stances ahead of the company’s full-year report, signaling growing confidence in Shopify’s medium-term revenue trajectory.

4. Guidance and Financial Outlook for Q4

For the upcoming fourth quarter, Shopify management has guided toward year-over-year sales growth in the high-twenties percentage range and gross profit expansion in the low-to-mid-twenties. Consensus estimates sit at or slightly above these targets, reflecting a conservative outlook from the company. Investors will closely monitor the earnings release for any signs of upside surprise in subscription revenue and merchant solutions uptake, indicators that could drive the next leg of share price recovery.

Sources

FFF