Jefferies Lifts WTI Forecasts by $5 to $81.79 in 2026
Jefferies raised its terminal WTI forecast by $5 to $70 per barrel, Brent to $75, and boosted its 2026 WTI estimate to $81.79 and 2027 forecast to $75. Analysts cite 10–12 million barrels per day offline and 400 million barrels of reserve releases that mute current prices.
1. Forecast Revisions
Jefferies raised its terminal WTI forecast by $5 to $70 per barrel, Brent to $75, and boosted its 2026 WTI estimate to $81.79 and its 2027 forecast to $75 per barrel.
2. Supply Constraints Mask Tightness
Analysts estimate 10–12 million barrels per day of oil, condensate and refined products are effectively offline, while 400 million barrels of strategic reserve releases have temporarily suppressed front-month prices despite tightening supply.
3. Demand, Curve and Shale Response
The back of the futures curve remains too low to incentivize new supply, with U.S. shale growth projected flat in 2026 and only 550,000 barrels per day of exit-rate growth at $85 WTI, potentially failing to meet demand.
4. Infrastructure Risks and Investment Picks
Heightened drone and missile threats to energy infrastructure, especially near the Strait of Hormuz where 20% of LNG growth is located, support increased real asset weightings, and the report recommends buying high-quality operators like Ovintiv, ConocoPhillips, EOG, Northern Oil & Gas, Cenovus, SLB, Baker Hughes and Halliburton on pullbacks.