Yum China Q4 EPS Beats by 14% and Jefferies Raises Price Target
Yum China reported Q4 EPS of $0.40, surpassing consensus by 14.3%, and revenues of $2.82 billion, 3.0% above estimates, driving a 25% YoY rise in operating profit to $187 million. Jefferies upgraded its rating to Buy and raised the price target from $58.75 to $63.64.
1. Q4 Earnings and Revenue Outperformance
Yum China reported fourth-quarter earnings of $0.40 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 14% and up 33% year-over-year from $0.30. Total revenues reached $2.82 billion, surpassing consensus by 3% and rising 9% from $2.6 billion in the prior-year quarter (7% growth excluding foreign-currency translation). System sales grew 7% year-over-year, and same-store sales increased 3%—the third consecutive quarter of positive comparable growth. Delivery sales surged 34%, contributing 53% of overall company sales versus 42% a year ago, underscoring the continued strength of digital channels.
2. Full-Year Results and Growth Initiatives
For the full year ended December 31, 2025, Yum China delivered revenues of $11.8 billion, up 4% from 2024, and operating profit of $1.29 billion, an 11% increase. Diluted EPS rose 8% to $2.51, or 14% on a consistent-currency, non-GAAP basis. The company opened a record 1,706 net new restaurants, bringing the total network to 18,101 locations, with 31% franchisee-operated. Same-store sales for the year grew 1%, and system sales expanded 4%. Management reaffirmed its target of surpassing 20,000 stores in 2026 and 30,000 by 2030 through a hybrid equity-and-franchise model, while continuing to enhance KFC’s KCOFFEE and KPRO concepts and roll out Pizza Hut’s WOW format into lower-tier cities.
3. Analyst Upgrade and Shareholder Returns
Jefferies upgraded Yum China to "Buy" and raised its 12-month price target from $58.75 to $63.64, citing the company’s robust same-store sales trends and expanding delivery mix. The firm highlighted a 14.3% earnings surprise and consistent revenue outperformance over the past four quarters. Yum China returned $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2025 through $353 million in dividends and $1.14 billion in share repurchases, and plans to maintain an annual $1.5 billion capital return through 2026. The board approved a 21% dividend increase to $0.29 per share, payable in March, supporting an attractive yield profile alongside sustained operating-profit margin expansion.