Jefferies Slashes Roblox Target to $85; Morgan Stanley Sees 82.8% Upside

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Jefferies cut Roblox’s target to $85 from $100, basing it on a 30x multiple of projected $1.93B fiscal 2026 EBITDA and cautioning bookings growth may fall short of 20%. Morgan Stanley’s $155 target implies 82.8% upside as shares jumped 11% on bullish feedback and call volume spikes ahead of Q4.

1. AI Enhancements Poised to Extend Revenue Runway

Roblox has unveiled a suite of artificial intelligence tools designed to boost creator productivity, accelerate discovery and optimize platform efficiency. According to company disclosures, AI-assisted scripting and generative asset pipelines have cut average development time for new experiences by 25%, while algorithmic recommendation updates have increased session starts per user by 15% month-over-month. These improvements lay the groundwork for more scalable monetization, with management projecting AI-enabled content to contribute as much as 30% of total bookings growth over the next two years.

2. Jefferies Lowers Price Target ahead of Q4 Results

Jefferies reduced its 12-month price target from $100 to $85 while maintaining a Hold rating ahead of the fourth-quarter earnings release, citing cautious sentiment around fiscal 2026 bookings guidance. The firm noted that investors had been hopeful for a 20% year-over-year growth outlook, but growing concerns about a lower guide or absence of a full-year forecast prompted the revision. Jefferies also highlighted that user engagement trends remained stable through January, mitigating near-term risks, yet warned that difficult year-over-year comparisons in the second half of the year could continue to pressure valuation multiples, which have already contracted from 45x to 30x forward EBITDA since Q3 2025.

3. Morgan Stanley Sees Significant Upside

Morgan Stanley analysts issued a bullish outlook, setting a price target that implies more than 80% upside from current levels, based on projected bookings acceleration and margin expansion. The team highlighted that Roblox’s average brokerage recommendation stands at 1.90, with a majority of firms favoring Strong Buy. They pointed to recent call option volumes rising nearly 50% above average as evidence of growing investor conviction. Morgan Stanley also emphasized the platform’s large-format growth, noting that user-generated content bookings increased by 18% year-over-year in the most recent quarter, underlining its competitive advantage against other gaming platforms.

Sources

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