Jobless claims, leading indicators show a low-hire, low-fire labor market
SPY•Initial jobless claims fell 3% to 194,000 last week, while continuing claims rose 1.5% to 1.728 million. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index was unchanged in September, better than the expected 0.1% decline.
1. Claims remain low
Initial jobless claims totaled 194,000 last week, down 3% from the prior week and 6,000 below consensus. The four-week average remained just below 200,000, near multi-decade lows. Continuing claims increased 1.5% to 1.728 million, 8,000 above economists’ expectations.
2. Leading index holds steady
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index was unchanged in September, compared with expectations for a 0.1% decline. Five of its 10 components contributed positively, led by the interest-rate spread and average weekly hours in manufacturing; declining consumer expectations offset those gains.
3. Economic outlook and markets
The index’s six-month growth rate increased slightly, suggesting the economy is still growing and becoming less dependent on consumer spending and more dependent on business investment, said the Conference Board’s Justyna Zabinska-La Monica. The article said the Nasdaq fell about 2.3%, the S&P 500 about 1.3% and the Dow about 0.4%.
