JP Morgan triples Tesla price target to $475, forecasts $203B revenue by 2030
TSLA•JP Morgan upgraded Tesla to neutral from underweight and tripled its price target to $475 from $145. The bank sees Tesla’s revenue reaching $203 billion by 2030 across five segments within a $3.9 trillion market and flagged regulatory and safety hurdles.
1. Rating Upgrade and Price Target Increase
JP Morgan lifted its rating on Tesla to neutral from underweight and raised its 12-month price target to $475 from $145, ending its long-standing bearish position. Coverage transitioned to Rajat Gupta, who led the upgrade.
2. Growth Forecast and TAM Analysis
Gupta’s team mapped Tesla’s potential across cars, energy storage, robotaxis, humanoid robotics and infrastructure licensing, estimating a $3.9 trillion total addressable market over the next decade. They projected Tesla’s revenue to grow from about $95 billion this year to $203 billion by 2030, driven largely by emerging businesses.
3. Cautions and Challenges
Analysts cautioned that realizing these projections hinges on securing regulatory approvals, proving safety at scale and deploying still-maturing technologies. Tesla’s acknowledgment that roughly four million vehicles will need hardware upgrades to achieve full self-driving underscores these implementation risks.
