JPMorgan estimated the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million in October. HSBC raised its Saudi Aramco production forecasts, including to 8.3 million barrels per day for the fourth quarter of 2026.
JPMorgan said the global oil market moved back into surplus after months of disruption caused by the US-Israeli war with Iran. It estimated the surplus at 1.1 million barrels per day in September and 1.4 million in October, nearly matching last year’s average of 1.3 million.
Global crude imports rose to 44.9 million barrels per day in October, up 1.3 million from a year earlier, while Middle East oil exports recovered to about 20.7 million barrels per day from 9.8 million in March. JPMorgan estimated global demand had fallen by 3.3 million barrels per day since the conflict began. HSBC raised its Saudi Aramco crude production forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 to 8.3 million barrels per day from 6.3 million, and its 2027 forecast to 9.8 million from 8.8 million; it expects output to return to about 10 million barrels per day by mid-2027.
