JPMorgan Sees 25.5% Growth and $115-135B Capex in 2026
JPMorgan forecasts META’s reported revenue to grow 25.5% in 2026, driven by AI-driven ad growth, while first-quarter momentum suggests possible 25-30% upside. The firm projects 38-44% GAAP expense growth to $162-169B, capex of $115-135B, Reality Labs losses peaking at $19.7B, and non-cancelable commitments at $131B.
1. Q4 2025 Earnings Beat Consensus
Meta Platforms reported fourth-quarter revenue of $59.9 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase that exceeded the consensus estimate of $58.4 billion. Adjusted earnings per share rose 11% to $8.88, topping the street’s $8.16 forecast. Ad impressions grew 28% globally, driven by renewed advertiser demand in North America and double-digit growth in Asia Pacific, while ad pricing held relatively steady despite tougher comps in the United States.
2. Aggressive AI Infrastructure Investment
For full-year 2026, Meta guided GAAP operating expenses of $162 billion to $169 billion—38% to 44% growth—alongside capital expenditures of $115 billion to $135 billion, up 65% to 94% year-over-year. At December 2025, net property, plant and equipment tied to servers and networking assets reached $98 billion, up 45% from a year earlier. Management emphasized that these investments will support large-language-model deployment across Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, with the goal of sustaining operating income above 2025 levels despite the infrastructure spend.
3. Reality Labs Losses Peak and Strategic Refocus
The Reality Labs division recorded a $2.207 billion loss in 2025, roughly flat with the $2.146 billion deficit in 2024. In response, Meta announced a headcount reduction of 1,500 employees within Reality Labs and the closure of three virtual-reality game studios. Going forward, roughly 70% of the segment’s operating budget will be allocated to smart-glasses and wearable devices, while the remaining 30% supports Horizon and VR platform development. Management expects Reality Labs losses to peak in 2026 before declining in 2027 as new hardware products launch.
4. International Revenue Reliance Shapes Outlook
Overseas sales accounted for approximately 58% of Meta’s total revenue in 2025, up from 55% in 2024, with international ad revenue growing 27% year-over-year. Emerging markets—particularly India and Latin America—delivered ad growth of over 30%, offsetting moderating demand in Europe. Currency translation effects, however, trimmed overall top-line growth by about 2 percentage points. Wall Street models now factor in a slightly higher dollar exposure and forecast international revenue to contribute 60% of group sales by end-2026.