JPMorgan's $145 Price Target Implies 61% Tesla Stock Plunge

TSLATSLA

JPMorgan’s Ryan Brinkman kept an Underweight rating on Tesla with a $145 price target implying 61% downside from current levels. He warned Tesla’s capex plan, rising to $25 billion from $8.5 billion in 2025, may eclipse revenue and free cash flow, leading to large cash outflows in 2026.

1. Underweight Rating and Price Target

Ryan Brinkman maintained an Underweight rating on Tesla stock and set a $145 price target reflecting a projected 61% decline from current levels.

2. Aggressive Capex Increase

Tesla's capital expenditures for 2025 were raised to $25 billion, nearly triple last year's $8.5 billion, prompting concerns over investments in low-revenue projects like full self-driving and robotics.

3. Free Cash Flow Pressure

With Tesla generating $6.2 billion in free cash flow in 2024, the steep capex increase could result in substantial net cash outflows in 2026, challenging liquidity and valuation.

Sources

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