Kairos Partners sees AI investment focus shifting from infrastructure to monetization
QQQ•Kairos Partners’ analysis projects AI capital expenditure will reach $960 billion in 2026, up 107% from 2025, as investment focus shifts toward monetization. It warns that spending outpacing AI revenue could create excess capacity and pressure prices and returns.
1. AI spending outlook
Kairos Partners said hedge managers have significantly reduced portfolio risk as AI investment focus shifts from infrastructure growth toward monetization. The analysis projects AI capital expenditure of $960 billion in 2026, up 107% from the previous year, with neocloud providers’ share expected to exceed 20%, compared with less than 10% in 2025.
2. Risks and China
The analysis said investment outpacing AI revenue could create excess capacity, pressure prices and reduce returns on invested capital. It sees selective opportunities in Chinese technology companies and exporters, while weak consumption and property-sector distress constrain prospects for a broad recovery.
