Kaspi.kz ADS were lower in US trading as the market continued to digest the company’s most recent FY2025 results package and related disclosures, which highlighted a tougher 2026 profitability setup in Kazakhstan. Management pointed to higher bank taxes, increased reserve requirements, and a high-interest-rate environment as factors expected to weigh on bottom-line growth even if revenue remains resilient.

The latest guidance framework introduces consolidated Adjusted EBITDA expectations with around 5% year-over-year growth, including Türkiye, while also signaling that incremental regulatory and balance-sheet costs in Kazakhstan will likely mute earnings leverage. With investors sensitive to fintech margin trajectories, commentary around tax-rate increases and non-earning reserves has contributed to renewed caution and a re-rating lower following the results.

Kaspi’s consolidation of its Türkiye exposure has become a central part of the 2026 narrative, both as a growth opportunity and as a potential near-term drag on profitability. Recent operational initiatives linking Hepsiburada supply to Kazakhstan commerce underscore strategic momentum, but the market appears focused on integration costs and the pace at which Türkiye operations can contribute meaningfully to consolidated earnings.

Investors will likely focus on upcoming shareholder actions around dividend and capital-return items at the scheduled April 15, 2026 annual general meeting, alongside any updates that refine the balance between payout, buybacks, and expansion spending. Near-term trading may remain headline-sensitive to further clarification on regulatory costs, reserve requirements, and whether management can stabilize margins while pursuing growth targets.