Warsh Nomination Sparks S&P 500 ETF Drop as Markets Brace for Up to 5 Rate Cuts
Macro advisor Steven Major said Trump’s Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh could cut rates four or five times, doubling the market’s two-cut forecast. Following the nomination, the S&P 500 ETF dropped and gold, silver and major cryptocurrencies also declined on steeper yield curve and renewed inflation concerns.
1. Fed Chair Nomination Sparks Rate Cut Expectations
Macro strategist Steven Major of Tradition Dubai told Bloomberg TV that Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, could deliver “four or five rather than two” rate cuts over the next year. He argued that Warsh’s more aggressive view on easing would outpace current market forecasts and significantly reshape Treasury demand. Investors have shifted into shorter-maturity notes in anticipation of a steeper yield curve, with Major recommending a preference for those shorter bills rather than longer-dated Treasuries.
2. SPY ETF Slides on Policy Uncertainty
The announcement of Warsh’s nomination triggered a selloff in the S&P 500 ETF, which fell sharply as traders weighed the implications of a Fed led by a critic of data-driven policy. Warsh has labeled the Fed’s reliance on monthly inflation and jobs reports as “reactionary” and has called for a revamped regulatory regime, stoking concerns over increased market volatility. Equity investors, already cautious after the Fed held its target rate at 3.5%–3.75% last week, interpreted the prospect of multiple rate cuts and regulatory overhaul as a catalyst for rapid shifts in asset allocation.
3. Broader Market Ripples
Beyond equities, gold, silver and major cryptocurrencies also experienced declines on the day of the nomination, as traders rotated out of traditional safe havens into risk assets in the early hours before recalibrating positions. The moves reflect uncertainty about how quickly Warsh would act on his stated preference for shorter-term data signals and a smaller Fed balance sheet, a combination that could unsettle both inflation expectations and bank funding costs.