KeyBanc Flags 29x Revenue Multiple as SpaceX Signs $6.3B AI Deal
SPCX•SpaceX shares fell 7% after KeyBanc initiated coverage with a Sector Weight rating, noting a 29x forecasted 2027 revenue multiple and undecided Starship progress. SpaceX also signed a potential $6.3 billion AI infrastructure contract with Reflection AI, starting July 2026 at $150 million per month through 2029 from its Colossus data center.
1. Coverage Initiation by KeyBanc
In June 2026, KeyBanc initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Sector Weight rating and withheld a price target, citing the need for clearer progress updates on the Starship program before upgrading the outlook. The firm highlighted that SpaceX trades at roughly 29 times its projected 2027 revenue, reflecting a steep valuation.
2. Share Price Volatility
Shares of SpaceX fell about 7% on the first trading day after the coverage launch and later dropped nearly 10%, marking one of the steepest single-day declines since its IPO. These moves contrast with the stock's still-elevated position above its $135 IPO price, underscoring investor debate over long-term upside versus current valuation.
3. AI Infrastructure Deal with Reflection AI
SpaceX secured a potential $6.3 billion compute services contract with Reflection AI, starting July 1, 2026, at $150 million per month through 2029, subject to termination with 90 days' notice after three months. The agreement grants access to advanced Nvidia GB300 GPUs at the Colossus data center, expanding on prior partnerships such as those with Anthropic and Google.
