KeyBanc Initiates Sector Weight on SpaceX, Flags 29x P/S and Starship Risk
SPCX•KeyBanc initiated Sector Weight coverage of SpaceX, noting its shares trade at 29x price-to-sales and 71x EV/EBITDA on 2027 estimates and Starlink generated $11.4 billion revenue with a 63% EBITDA margin in 2025. The firm sees Starship’s development timeline as the primary risk and upside catalyst.
1. Coverage Initiation and Valuation Metrics
KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Sector Weight rating, noting that its shares trade at approximately 29 times price-to-sales and 71 times EV/EBITDA based on 2027 estimates, representing a significant premium to peers across space, AI, and communications services sectors.
2. Starlink’s Revenue and Profitability
SpaceX’s Connectivity segment, driven by its Starlink satellite internet service, accounted for 61% of 2025 revenue, generating about $11.4 billion and delivering a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin. KeyBanc highlighted that Starlink alone can support a meaningful portion of enterprise value, limiting downside risk to the overall investment thesis.
3. AI Segment Deals and Adoption
SpaceX’s AI business, which includes the Grok chatbot and xAI computing infrastructure, has secured major compute contracts—Anthropic at roughly $1.25 billion per month and Google at $920 million per month—and is forecast to generate around $50.6 billion in revenue by 2027. However, Grok holds just 3.1% U.S. business adoption versus 41% for Anthropic and 39.5% for OpenAI, making the next 12–24 months a critical “prove-it” phase.
4. Starship Development as Catalyst and Risk
The development timeline for Starship is viewed as the key variable for SpaceX’s future valuation, given its role in deploying next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, enabling full rocket reusability to reduce launch costs, and supporting orbital data centers. Flight 13 is scheduled for June 29, with a conservative stance taken on its progress.
