Kinder Morgan Posts 50% EPS Gain and Expands Backlog to $10 Billion
Kinder Morgan's Q4 net income rose 49% to $996 million with EPS up 50% at $0.45, while adjusted EBITDA grew 10% and adjusted EPS jumped 22%. Backlog reached $10 billion after adding $650 million, Trident construction started, and 2026 LNG feed gas demand is forecast at a record 19.8 Bcf/d.
1. Analyst Outlook and Upside Potential
On January 23, 2026, Scotiabank published a research note on Kinder Morgan indicating a target price implying an approximate 1.04% upside. The brokerage cited the company’s resilient fee-based business model and takes-or-pay contracts for LNG feed gas as key support for stable cash flow. Scotiabank reiterated its “outperform” rating, noting that the stock’s modest premium to peers reflects execution on recent growth projects and an improving leverage profile.
2. Natural Gas Market Dynamics
Natural gas futures at the Henry Hub facility have climbed above $5 per MMBtu, marking a 60% increase for the week— the largest weekly gain since futures began trading in 1990. Driven by an Arctic cold wave impacting some 40 states, heightened heating demand and potential production disruptions from freeze-offs are creating near-term deliverability risks. As a major transporter of interstate gas, Kinder Morgan stands to benefit from increased volumes on its Gulf Coast and Tennessee Gas pipeline systems, though extreme weather could introduce operational challenges.
3. Q4 2025 Earnings Highlights
In its latest quarterly earnings call, Kinder Morgan reported record results for both the quarter and full year. Adjusted EBITDA rose 10% year-over-year in Q4, while adjusted earnings per share grew 22%. Net income attributable to Kinder Morgan reached $996 million, driven by contributions from recent natural gas expansion projects and the Outrigger acquisition. Excluding one‐time gains on asset sales, adjusted net income and EPS still advanced 22% compared with the year-ago period.
4. Growth Projects and Financial Position
Management disclosed a project backlog of $10 billion, up $650 million sequentially, supported by long-term shipper contracts on key Florida Gas Transmission expansions. Beyond the approved backlog, the company is evaluating an additional $10 billion of potential opportunities. Balance sheet metrics continue to improve, with net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA at 3.8x versus 4.1x a year ago. The quarterly dividend was increased 2% year-over-year, and annual capital expenditure guidance remains near $3 billion, funded largely through operating cash flow.