Komerční banka cuts Czech 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.7%
SPY•Komerční banka cut its Czech GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.7% from 2.1% and its 2027 forecast to 2.3% from 2.6%. It expects inflation to reach 3% in 2026 and the CNB to raise its key rate to 4% in November.
1. Growth and inflation outlook
Komerční banka cut its Czech GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.7% from 2.1%, citing weaker activity and the Middle East conflict. It lowered its 2027 forecast to 2.3% from 2.6%, while household consumption and investment are expected to remain the main growth drivers. Inflation is forecast to accelerate to 3% from 2.1% in 2026, driven by higher energy and food prices.
2. Rate and lending expectations
The bank expects the CNB to raise its two-week repo rate to 4% in November and hold it through the end of 2027. Tighter financial conditions are expected to slow lending growth next year, with mortgage cooling continuing and corporate borrowing facing constraints.
