Lam Research Sees China Revenue Drop Below 30% Despite 165% Yearly Surge
Lam Research shares have climbed 165% in the past year, driven by RBC Capital’s Outperform initiation with a $260 target and booming AI-led revenue growth. Management forecasts China revenue below 30% in 2026 due to export curbs, while six major inflows since September have bolstered the stock’s rally.
1. Analyst Coverage Expands with Outperform Rating
On Thursday, RBC Capital initiated coverage of Lam Research Corp. with an Outperform rating and set a price target of 260 dollars, marking the first new analyst initiation on the shares this year. This action follows four upgrades by other major firms since January and brings the total number of buy or equivalent recommendations on the stock to eight out of 12 tracked by Refinitiv. RBC analysts highlighted Lam’s leadership in deposit and etch tool segments as a key driver of medium-term profit expansion.
2. Shares Rally 165% over 12 Months on AI‐Driven Demand
Over the past year, Lam Research shares have climbed 165 percent, outperforming the broader semiconductor sector’s 120 percent gain. The surge has been fueled by a 28 percent year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue to 5.6 billion dollars, driven primarily by AI-related wafer fabrication equipment orders. Gross margins expanded by 220 basis points compared to the year-ago quarter, reaching 50.5 percent, reflecting higher utilization of advanced etch systems for high-density memory and logic chips.
3. China Exposure to Fall below 30% in 2026, Rebalancing Revenue Mix
Lam’s management notified investors that sales to Chinese customers will drop below 30 percent of total revenue in fiscal 2026, down from 38 percent in fiscal 2023, as U.S. export restrictions limit tool shipments. To offset the decline, the company is reallocating production capacity to meet surging demand from domestic AI server manufacturers in North America and Europe, where sales are projected to grow at a 20 percent compound annual rate through 2026.
4. Institutional Inflows Highlight Investor Confidence
Fund‐flow data show six significant institutional inflows into Lam Research shares since September, totaling approximately 480 million dollars of new capital. Notable investors increasing positions include two major semiconductor-focused ETFs and a technology-oriented pension fund. These inflows have contributed to 12 consecutive weeks of net buying, underscoring confidence in Lam’s ability to sustain robust cash generation and fund a 1 billion dollar share-repurchase program announced last quarter.