Liberty Oilfield Services (LBRT) is forecasting a 12% year-over-year decline in fourth-quarter 2025 revenues, driven by a 15% drop in well completion activity and a 10% reduction in hydraulic fracturing operations across its North American footprint. Customer count fell from 180 to 155 during the quarter as several mid-sized operators deferred new projects in response to weaker commodity prices. Average revenue per job slid from $250,000 to $220,000, reflecting both lower service intensity and heightened pricing competition in key basins such as the Permian and Eagle Ford.

Despite the top-line pressure, LBRT expects to expand its adjusted EBITDA margin from 21% to 27% in Q4, driven by a $45 million reduction in operating expenses compared with the same period last year. Key initiatives include headcount optimization—reducing administrative roles by 8%—and renegotiated supply agreements that cut pumping fluid costs by 18%. Analysts project LBRT will report an adjusted earnings per share of $0.18, roughly 10% above consensus, as total operating expenses fall to $150 million for the quarter.