Like the US, Iran has squandered its good options to end the war, Russell says
USO•Iran faces a choice between escalation, a peace deal requiring compromise or continued stalemate, columnist Clyde Russell writes. Iran has exported no crude since August, while tanker attacks and higher shipping costs have kept regional fuel costs elevated.
1. Iran’s choices
Iran can escalate by attacking energy infrastructure across the Gulf, pursue a peace deal or continue the current stalemate, Russell writes. He says escalation could prompt a major US and Israeli response and damage Iran’s own infrastructure, while a deal could require Tehran to compromise on its nuclear programme and allow independent oversight.
2. Strait disruptions
Iran has attacked at least 10 vessels in the first 10 days of November, after 37 attacks in October, the column says. Brent crude futures fell about 22% in two weeks to $92.46 a barrel on Wednesday, but freight and insurance costs for moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz were about 10 times pre-war levels.
3. Iranian exports
Iran has not exported crude since August, compared with an average of 1.73 million barrels per day in the three months before the conflict, according to Kpler data cited in the column. China was the only buyer of Iranian crude in October, importing 228,000 barrels per day.
