GDX•U.S. equity index futures slightly green; Nasdaq 100 up ~0.3%
July NFIB Business Optimism 99.8 vs 97.4 last month
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.2%
Dollar ~flat; gold, bitcoin, U.S. crude rise slightly
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slips to ~4.69%
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Gold and silver are finding their footing again.
After peaking in late January and tumbling into mid-July lows, both metals have staged an impressive comeback. Gold XAU= has climbed nearly 9% so far in August, while silver XAG= has jumped about 13%, making them among the month's strongest performers.
That strength is showing up across the materials sector. Materials .SPLRCM is the best-performing S&P 500 .SPX sector in August, up 6.3%, comfortably ahead of the broader S&P 500's 3.5% gain.
The real winners, though, have been precious-metals miners. The PHLX Gold/Silver Index .XAU has surged more than 20% this month, with Newmont NEM.N and Freeport-McMoRan FCX.N leading the charge among materials stocks.
Gold's technical picture has improved as well. After ending at $3,968.62 on July 16, its lowest close since early November last year, the metal broke out of a basing pattern to the upside last week.
On Tuesday, gold rallied to an intraday high of $4,434.84, bringing it within striking distance of a key resistance line from its January peak. That resistance now sits just below $4,500. Adding to its importance, the 200-day moving average is currently around $4,496, putting both technical hurdles in nearly the same spot. Gold has since pulled back and is trading around $4,395.
One lingering challenge is higher Treasury yields. While the dollar =USD is little changed this month, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR has climbed toward 4.74%. A move above 4.747% would mark its highest level since January 2025.
The key question now is whether gold's breakout has staying power or if this is simply another counter-trend rally.
If gold fails to overcome resistance, it could give investors in precious-metals miners pause, especially since the rolling 10-week correlation between gold and the gold/silver mining index is a very tight 0.95, with 1.0 representing a perfect positive correlation.
That's why traders are keeping a close eye on the $4,500 area. A decisive break above resistance could provide another tailwind for gold and silver mining stocks, potentially extending the sector's strong August run.
