LIVE MARKETS-Hoping for a clean and tidy jobs report

• U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for July
• German industrial output, trade data for June
• French trade data for June

Markets are mostly in a holding pattern as traders stayed on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. payrolls report, which is getting notoriously difficult to predict month by month.

However, the stakes couldn't be higher as markets cannot seem to make up their mind about how the Federal Reserve will move next month. An interest rate hike is about 54% priced in – basically a coin toss, which is precisely the sort of ambiguity new Chair Kevin Warsh seems to enjoy cultivating.

The consensus forecast is for a gain of 80,000 jobs for July but the range is so wide - from 10,000 to 140,000 - that someone will be terribly wrong. Unemployment is forecast to hold steady at a still low rate of 4.2%, though there's a clique of analysts tipping 4.3%.

So what's the playbook? With inflation risks front of mind for policymakers, an in-line or stronger result would mean the Federal Reserve can hike next month if it's needed without torpedoing the labour market. It would take a much weaker outcome for markets to give up rate hike bets en masse.

Reflecting this suspense, Asian markets had one of their quieter days. Japan and South Korea slipped about 1%, but nothing like the wild swings of recent weeks. Chinese shares eked out gains as its huge export machine kept powering ahead.

European futures are pointing to a slightly softer open, with the pan-region stock index STXEc1 down 0.2%. Wall Street futures were flat.