Live Markets-Hyperscaler credit spreads signal caution, not alarm

The scrutiny comes as capex is projected to reach $758 billion this year and $925 billion in 2027, more than double 2025 levels. Investors are looking for firmer evidence that AI investment will be properly monetised.

The Italian bank argues technical factors are also at work.

Hyperscalers have already issued $114 billion of bonds year-to-date, exceeding the $82 billion raised in all of 2025, while investor demand for new deals has softened.

The growing use of private equity, private credit and off-balance-sheet funding structures for AI infrastructure adds another layer of uncertainty, it adds.

UniCredit says the signal should not be overstated.

Average hyperscaler bond spreads have roughly doubled to above 110 basis points this month from below 60 bps mid-2025, but much of the move is down to Oracle ORCL.N.

Stripping Oracle off, spreads have also widened, but remain below the average of all U.S. corporate bonds, reflecting strong cash generation, balance sheets and AA-category credit ratings.

Investors looking for early signs of artificial intelligence fatigue may be finding them in the bond market.

Credit spreads on bonds issued by so-called hyperscalers such as Amazon AMZN.O, Microsoft MSFT.O, Alphabet and Meta have widened over the past year, raising questions about whether debt investors are growing more wary of the sector's huge AI spending plans.