LNG wave is coming, just not right now
UNG•Rabobank says a wave of new LNG capacity should ease supply concerns, forecasting Dutch TTF gas prices at €38-42 per megawatt hour through much of 2027. The bank estimates about 40 million tonnes per annum of non-Qatari export capacity could reach markets next year, followed by another 50 million in 2028.
1. Supply concerns persist
European and Asian gas prices are near their highest levels in around three years as geopolitical tensions focus traders on supply security. Rabobank says low European storage, reduced Qatari flows and risks to Strait of Hormuz shipping have added a substantial risk premium, with further escalation potentially pushing prices higher.
2. New capacity ahead
Rabobank says LNG projects expected to start over the next few years should ease supply concerns. It forecasts TTF gas prices will more than halve to €38-42 per megawatt hour through much of 2027 as additional capacity becomes available, with North America, Canada, Nigeria and Russia contributing. The bank estimates around 40 million tonnes per annum of non-Qatari export capacity could reach markets next year, followed by another 50 million in 2028.
