Lowe's Could Suffer 17% Average Drop in Market Crashes
LOW•Lowe's retail network and housing reliance imply it may similarly average a -17% drawdown across 15 major market dislocations. Historical peers plunged -31% in 2008 and -37% in 2020, highlighting significant downside risk in a severe downturn.
1. Downside Capture Analysis
Lowe's faces an average -17% drawdown across 15 major market dislocations, matching sector patterns in systemic shocks and reflecting high downside capture relative to broader equities.
2. Crisis Case Studies
In the 2008 housing crash peers plunged -31%, in the 2010 sovereign debt crisis they fell -25%, and during the 2020 pandemic they dropped -37%, illustrating varied drawdowns in different macro events.
3. Structural Risk Factors
Dependence on a vast brick-and-mortar footprint and housing-driven consumer discretionary spending heightens Lowe's operational leverage and exposure to demand shocks when the macro environment weakens.
