Luxury: Berenberg says keep selling the rallies
XLY•Berenberg says luxury-sector investors should sell rallies, forecasting 2-4% sales growth over the next two to three years rather than a return to the historical 6-7% rate within months.
1. Berenberg sees structural headwinds
Berenberg argues that luxury-sector problems are structural rather than cyclical and says consensus forecasts remain too optimistic. It considers 2-4% growth over the next two to three years more credible, citing a prolonged slowdown in China, pressure on aspirational consumers and softer demand from Gen Z shoppers. Analysts Nick Anderson and Vani Mohindra wrote: “Our strategy remains simple: sell the bear market rally.”
