LVMH Q4 Revenue Tops Estimates by €0.5B but Shares Plunge Over 7%

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LVMH reported Q4 revenue of €22.7B, beating estimates by €0.5B, yet shares plunged over 7% on weaker margins and a warning that 2026 will face significant geopolitical headwinds. For 2025, LVMH posted €80.8B revenue (−1% organic), €17.8B recurring operating profit and €11.3B free cash flow, up 8%.

1. Disappointing Fourth-Quarter Results Send Shares Lower

LVMHF shares slid more than 7% following the release of fourth-quarter results, which showed organic revenue growth of just 1% year-over-year—flat with Q4 2023—despite €22.7 billion in reported sales beating consensus of €22.2 billion. Investors compared LVMH’s performance unfavorably with peers such as Richemont and Burberry, which posted stronger sequential gains. The fashion and leather goods division, responsible for over 45% of group revenue, saw organic sales decline 5% for the full year, widening from a 1% drop in 2024. Kering shares also fell, down 5% on the session, underscoring sector-wide sensitivity to mixed earnings.

2. Full-Year Revenue Declines and Cash Flow Strength

For the 2025 fiscal year, LVMHF reported revenue of €80.8 billion, a 1% organic decline and 5% drop on a reported basis versus €84.7 billion in 2024. Profit from recurring operations fell 9% to €17.8 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders declined 13% to €10.9 billion. Operating free cash flow rose 8% to €11.3 billion, reflecting improved working capital management despite currency headwinds that shaved 3 percentage points off sales. The watches & jewelry segment delivered 3% organic growth, and selective retailing gained 4%, partially offsetting weakness in wines & spirits (-5%) and perfumes & cosmetics (flat).

3. Cautious Outlook and Geopolitical Risks

Chairman and CEO Bernard Arnault warned that 2026 “won’t be simple,” citing unpredictable geo-economic events. He noted a stabilization in Chinese demand in H2 2025 but emphasized challenges from currency fluctuations—particularly a strong euro—and trade tensions affecting Hennessy cognac exports. Analysts at Barclays and Citi have raised concerns over valuation headwinds and the timing of an earnings recovery, forecasting mid-single-digit sector growth at constant currencies but warning that further margin pressure could emerge if price increases deter aspirational shoppers.

Sources

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