Macquarie Upgrades Nintendo After 50% Profit Jump, Warns Chip Shortage
Macquarie upgraded Nintendo Co., Ltd. to Outperform on February 3, 2026, after the company’s net profit rose over 50% in the nine months to December driven by Switch 2 unit sales. Analysts cautioned that an impending memory chip shortage may constrain future production and margins.
1. Quarterly Revenue Shortfall Contrasts With Strong Profit Growth
Nintendo reported quarterly revenue below market consensus, triggering a more than 10% drop in its Tokyo-listed shares. Despite revenue rising approximately 86% year-on-year—driven by sustained demand for the Switch and early Switch 2 sales—the figure fell short of analysts’ expectations for the period ending December. Net income, however, outpaced forecasts with a roughly 24% year-over-year increase, underscoring Nintendo’s ability to convert console and software sales into robust bottom-line growth.
2. Memory Chip Shortages Threaten Future Margins
The company warned that an unprecedented global shortage of memory chips—a critical component in both Switch and Switch 2 hardware—could erode profitability if elevated costs persist. Although President Shuntaro Furukawa indicated that first‐half results were not materially hurt by these input‐cost pressures, he conceded that sustained high memory prices could narrow hardware margins in the coming fiscal year.
3. Upcoming Switch 2 Titles Key to Sustaining Momentum
Investor attention is now fixed on Nintendo’s release schedule for early 2026. Major franchise launches—Mario Tennis Fever in February, Pokémon Pokópia in March and the new Super Mario Galaxy film tie-in in April—are viewed as pivotal in convincing existing Switch owners to upgrade and in attracting new console buyers. Market strategists caution that success or underperformance of these titles could determine Switch 2’s trajectory in a “make-or-break” year for the platform.