Macy’s projects comparable sales for fiscal 2026 to range from a 0.5% decline up to a 0.5% gain, reflecting cautious expectations after more robust growth in prior years. The narrow forecast highlights management’s concern over tighter consumer budgets and shifting spending patterns.

Real consumer spending growth is expected to decelerate to 1.5% in 2026 from 2.7% in 2025, weighed down by record-high credit levels, modest wage gains and broad price increases. These headwinds are pushing shoppers toward lower-cost and private-label brands, pressuring mid-tier retailers.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns that sustained oil prices above $190 a barrel could tip the U.S. into recession, a scenario historically linked to rising unemployment and declining retail sales. A downturn would tighten consumer credit and further challenge Macy’s revenue and margin outlook.