Macy’s Q4 Comps Upgraded to -0.5% With EPS $1.55; 2026 Guidance Wide Range
Jefferies raised Macy’s Q4 'owned' comparable sales estimate to -0.5% from -2.2%, citing better execution, and forecasts EPS of $1.55 versus a $1.53 consensus. For fiscal 2026, management plans a wide guidance range due to low visibility, relying on Bloomingdale’s margins and store remodels to drive SG&A leverage.
1. Q4 Performance Highlights
Macy’s Q4 “owned” comps improved to -0.5% from -2.2%, driven by effective promotional execution but still marking a sequential slowdown. Average unit retail fell 80 basis points to 4.1% amid seasonal discounts, unit volumes eased 200 basis points on tougher comparisons and adverse weather, while EPS reached $1.55 versus a $1.53 consensus.
2. Fiscal 2026 Guidance Outlook
For fiscal 2026, Macy’s plans to issue a wide guidance range to reflect low visibility in consumer spending and macro uncertainty, limiting clarity on revenue growth and margin expansion. Management’s cautious stance embeds potential volatility as the retail ’revenge spending’ cycle fades.
3. Strategic Levers for Upside
The company will lean on high-margin Bloomingdale’s operations and ongoing store remodels as key upside drivers, offering an underappreciated path to improved sales productivity. Achieving SG&A leverage amid negative retail sentiment will be critical to outperform a conservative 2026 baseline.