MAI Capital says tariff refunds widen US deficit, portfolio impact remains muted
SPY•Markets have stayed resilient
MAI Capital urged investors to avoid headline-driven moves, noting that markets hit new highs despite trade and fiscal uncertainty.
June refunds and fiscal deterioration
The firm pointed to June, when refunds reached a record USD 49.2 billion versus USD 23.6 billion collected. It said about 40% of refunds remain unprocessed. MAI Capital linked the refunds to a wider fiscal deterioration, citing an annual deficit near USD 1.8 trillion with debt above USD 40 trillion.
Tariff refunds create a one-time cash reversal
MAI Capital said tariff refunds are acting as a one-time cash reversal for businesses, not a lasting improvement in underlying fundamentals. The firm said the refunds have exceeded new tariff collections since May, creating net government outflows for three straight months.
