Major brokerages expect Fed to hold rates ahead of policy meeting
TLT•Global brokerages expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at its October meeting; most forecast one 25-basis-point hike in December 2026, while BofA Global Research expects two hikes that year.
1. October rate outlook
Global brokerages expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. The current rate is 3.75%-4%, and futures price in a roughly 9.4% chance of an October rate increase.
2. 2026 forecasts
Most brokerages listed expect one 25-basis-point hike in December 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%. BofA Global Research expects two hikes, in October and December, totaling 50 basis points and taking the rate to 4.25%-4.50%; futures put the probability of a December move at 86.2%.
