Mapping the Market: Australian bond yields may have further to climb

• Uptrend in Australian 10-year yields since 2020, with only one pullback in 2023
• Break above the 4.3142% Fibonacci retracement in November 2025
• Next target for gains would be the 2011 high of 5.7650%, followed by the 2008 top at 6.8180%

Remember, bond yields and prices move in opposite directions. When a bond's price rises, its yield falls, and vice versa, since the coupon payment is fixed — pay more, earn less; pay less, earn more.

Significantly, the Australian yield broke above 4.3142% in November 2025, a level representing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the long-term slide in yields from 16.50% in 1982 to 0.55% in 2020. Fibonacci levels mark price points a market often revisits after a big move, and breaking above one is typically seen as a bullish signal for continuation.

The significance of this breach is growing as the yield rally nears the 2011 high, which is at 5.7650%, according to data supplied by LSEG. A move above that level would bring the next key Fibonacci level, the 38.2% retracement, at 6.6429%, into view, followed by a major 2008 technical top at 6.8180%.

On a long-term basis, only a drop below the 20-year moving average at 3.6360% could force a pause in the trend, or even a reversal.

The key question may be how long the RBA maintains its restrictive tilt, since any softening in its inflation-fighting stance could take the pressure off yields.