Technical analysis indicates the rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield may slow, though it has not shown signs of easing. The yield recently topped 5%, above its yearly Bollinger Band near 5.13%; analysts cite possible targets of 5.33%, 5.65% and 6.24%, and support levels from 5.04% to 4.70%.
The 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed this year, driven by rising oil prices and inflation expectations, buoyant US growth and debt-financed corporate AI investment. It recently rose above 5% and above its yearly Bollinger Band, currently near 5.13%; the article says this has happened only once before since 1984.
The yield broke through the 1993 low of 5.1514% this month. Annual Relative Strength Index readings are at their highest in more than 40 years, while monthly and weekly readings are at their most overbought in about two years or more, raising doubts about whether yields can keep rising without a pause. The analysis says this does not guarantee a pullback.
Downside support is in the 5.04%-5.02% zone; a break below 4.92% would strengthen the case for a deeper retreat, with the rising 20-week moving average near 4.70% also in focus. If the yield stays above 5.1514%, traders may turn to targets around 5.33%, 5.65% and 6.24%.
