Mapping the Market: Oil refiner stocks may need to catch their breath
CRAK•CRAK breaks above long-term trading range
The VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) spent most of the last decade confined to a well-defined trading channel spanning roughly $17 from top to bottom. Early this year, the ETF broke decisively above the channel's ceiling near $43, quickly reaching the first logical chart target: a move equal to the channel's height, or $60.
Since then, CRAK has drifted modestly higher, but at levels near $63 it looks overextended. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a widely used gauge of market momentum, is flashing overbought signals across daily, weekly and monthly timeframes alike, suggesting the ETF's nearly 66% year-to-date surge may need to cool off.
Oil refiners rally may be due for a pause
Sept 4 (Reuters) - Shares of global oil refiners have surged this year, boosted in part by supply disruptions related to the U.S.-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. But technical analysis suggests the rally may be due for a pause before the sector's next chapter unfolds.
Upside targets and support levels to watch
If the uptrend resumes after any consolidation, Fibonacci projections — percentage-based calculations technical analysts use to forecast potential price targets — point to $70.5 and then $77 as the next levels to watch.
Caution is warranted, though. A slide below the July high, which is at $56.85 according to LSEG data, could open the door to a decline toward the May peak near $52. A break beneath that level would raise the odds that CRAK is retreating back into its old trading range below $43.
What the chart shows:
