MercadoLibre Sees 30% Q4 Brazil GMV Growth, 35% 2026 Revenue Rise
JPMorgan upgraded MercadoLibre to Overweight after projecting 30% Brazil GMV growth in Q4 and forecasting 35% revenue, 34% operating profit, and 41% earnings gains for 2026. The company heads into its Q4 report with strong top-line momentum, though rising fulfillment costs and intensified competition may pressure margins.
1. JPMorgan Upgrade and 2026 Forecast
JPMorgan raised its rating of MercadoLibre to Overweight on February 12 after noting diminishing competitive pressure from Shopee. The firm projects Brazil GMV will climb over 30% in Q4 and forecasts 35% revenue, 34% operating profit and 41% earnings growth in 2026, driven by currency gains and margin improvements.
2. Q4 Earnings Preview
MercadoLibre enters its fourth-quarter report with robust top-line momentum, supported by increased app usage in Brazil. Investors will watch key metrics like marketplace gross merchandise volume and fintech adoption as rising fulfillment and payment costs could dampen margin expansion.
3. Competitive and Cost Pressures
Despite revenue growth, escalating logistics expenses and intensified competition across Latin America may strain margins. Shopee's higher take rates on premium items have aligned with MercadoLibre’s pricing, reducing downside risks but maintaining pressure on profitability.