Merck Abandons $30B Revolution Medicines Deal; Cullen Frost Trims Stake 7%

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Merck & Co. abandoned $30B acquisition talks for Revolution Medicines, eliminating a potential oncology pipeline expansion. Cullen Frost Bankers reduced its MRK holdings by 7% (17,082 shares) to 225,581 shares, while BMO Capital and Wolfe Research raised price targets to as high as $135.

1. Merck Ends Acquisition Talks for Revolution Medicines

Merck & Co. has formally ceased discussions to acquire cancer‐drug developer Revolution Medicines, according to a Wall Street Journal report. The potential transaction had been expected to value Revolution Medicines at approximately $30 billion, which would have marked one of the largest biotech buyouts of the year. Sources indicate that strategic and pricing disagreements ultimately led both parties to walk away from negotiations in late January.

2. Institutional Investors Adjust Stakes

During the third quarter, Cullen Frost Bankers Inc. reduced its Merck shareholding by 7.0%, selling 17,082 shares to leave it with 225,581 shares valued at nearly $19 million per its latest SEC filing. In contrast, Charles Schwab Investment Management increased its Merck position by 9.4%, adding 4.6 million shares in the second quarter. New positions were also established by DLD Asset Management and Norges Bank, each deploying roughly $2.9 billion for fresh stakes. Overall, institutional and hedge fund ownership now stands at 76.1%.

3. Dividend Increase and Q4 Earnings Shortfall

Merck reported fourth‐quarter earnings per share of $1.94, missing consensus estimates by $0.14. The company’s net margin reached 29.6% and return on equity stood at 44.5%. On the capital return front, Merck declared a quarterly dividend of $0.85 per share, up from $0.81 previously, representing a 5% increase and yielding approximately 3.1% on an annualized basis. The payout ratio now sits at 44.9%, underscoring Merck’s commitment to shareholder distributions despite the EPS miss.

4. Analyst Upgrades Lift Investor Sentiment

A flurry of analyst actions has improved Merck’s profile on Wall Street. BMO Capital Markets upgraded Merck to 'outperform' and raised its price target to $130, while Goldman Sachs and Bank of America each nudged their targets into the low‐to‐mid $120 range with 'buy' ratings. Wolfe Research also lifted Merck to 'outperform'. Of the 17 analysts covering the name, eight now recommend buying Merck, seven rate it a hold, and two suggest selling, resulting in a consensus 'hold' view but with a more bullish skew than in prior months.

Sources

WDR