Merck’s vaccine business is under heightened scrutiny as Gardasil sales in Greater China plunged by approximately 35% year-over-year in Q3 and Japanese revenues tumbled by 28% over the same period. The company reported global Gardasil sales of $2.3 billion in the third quarter, down from $2.8 billion a year earlier. Analysts at Jefferies have trimmed their 2026 vaccine revenue forecasts by 15%, citing ongoing price competition and lower public-sector procurement in both markets. With Q4 earnings slated for release in late February, consensus estimates now call for total quarterly revenue growth of 5%, down from 8% previously, and core earnings per share of $1.70, reflecting the drag from the underperforming HPV franchise.