Meta Platforms Guides $66–72B AI Capex and Weighs 2026 Stock Split After 443% Rally
Meta shares have surged 443% over three years to $661.50, prompting a potential 2026 split in the range where peers split and historically delivering a 25.4% average 12-month return. Management guided fiscal-2025 capex at $66-72 billion for AI infrastructure and reported Q3 adjusted EPS growth of 20%.
1. Meta Platforms Poised for Stock Split
Shares of Meta Platforms have climbed roughly 443% over the past three years, placing the company’s share price in the same territory where technology peers historically enacted forward stock splits. While Meta has never split its stock since its public listing, growing earnings and a share price trajectory suggest a split could occur in 2026. Data from Bank of America’s Research Investment Committee indicates that companies announcing splits have delivered an average 12-month total return of 25.4%, more than double the benchmark index’s 11.9% over the same period. A split would increase liquidity by lowering per-share prices and could broaden Meta’s investor base, particularly among retail participants who prefer full-share ownership despite the availability of fractional shares.
2. AI Investments Driving Next Valuation Milestone
Meta’s strategic pivot toward artificial intelligence has underpinned robust revenue and earnings growth, positioning it to become the first new $2 trillion company in 2026. In the third quarter, adjusted earnings per share rose 20%, while revenue grew 26.2% year-over-year, driven by AI-powered recommendation and advertising algorithms. User engagement on core apps has risen for eight consecutive quarters, boosting both ad impressions and price per ad. Management forecasts capital expenditures of $66 billion to $72 billion in fiscal 2025, primarily for AI infrastructure, and plans to expand ad surfaces across WhatsApp, Reels and Threads. At roughly 26 times forward earnings, Meta trades at a significant discount to other large AI-focused companies, suggesting further multiple expansion as AI investments translate into stronger margins.
3. Institutional Accumulation and Insider Activity
During the latest reporting period, Swedbank AB increased its stake in Meta by 1.0%, bringing its total to 3,482,627 shares and making Meta its seventh largest holding at 2.6% of assets under management. Overall, hedge funds and institutional investors control approximately 79.9% of outstanding shares. In contrast, insider activity has been skewed toward sales: the chief financial officer and chief operating officer sold a combined 9,485 shares in mid-November, and insiders have divested 42,074 shares worth about $26.36 million over the past 90 days, reducing their aggregate holdings to 13.61% of the company.