Meta Q4 Preview: $14.3B AI Investment and $6B Data Center Deal
Meta will report Q4 earnings expecting $8.21 EPS and $58.35B revenue, after investing $14.3B in Scale AI and committing up to $6B to Corning for data center fiber-optic infrastructure. Investors will assess its AI model rollout (Avocado) and $21.97B capex spend as its Reality Labs unit posts a $5.67B loss.
1. Fourth-Quarter Earnings Expectations
Analysts surveyed by LSEG anticipate Meta will report earnings per share of $8.21 and revenue of $58.35 billion for the fourth quarter, representing year-over-year growth of roughly 20%. Online advertising sales are projected at $56.98 billion, up more than 20% from the same period last year, while daily active user count is expected to reach 3.58 billion. Investors will scrutinize management’s guidance for 2026, particularly any adjustments to revenue or expense forecasts that could signal confidence in the company’s strategic investments.
2. Overhaul of AI Strategy
Throughout 2025, Meta committed $14.3 billion to acquire Scale AI talent, including founder Alexandr Wang, to lead its top-tier TBD unit. That team is developing the next Llama successor, code-named Avocado, slated for release in the first half of 2026. The restructuring follows lukewarm developer reception to Llama 4 last spring. CEO Mark Zuckerberg has defended the overhaul as essential, noting that larger upfront investments in AI models are ‘‘very likely to be profitable’’ over time.
3. Data Center and Infrastructure Investments
Meta’s capital expenditures tied to its AI data-center expansion are forecast at $21.97 billion for the quarter, driven by a multiyear agreement to pay Corning up to $6 billion through 2030 for fiber-optic cable. The build-out positions the company to support more powerful AI workloads in competition with peers like OpenAI and Alphabet. Management’s commentary on pacing and efficiency of this outlay will be critical for investors weighing near-term profitability against long-term capacity gains.
4. Reality Labs Performance and Outlook
Reality Labs, Meta’s virtual and augmented reality division, is estimated to post an operating loss of $5.67 billion on $940.8 million in sales for the quarter, contributing to over $70 billion in cumulative losses since late 2020. Earlier this month, the company cut more than 1,000 roles in the unit to reallocate resources toward AI-related wearable devices such as Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses. Shareholders will look for updates on cost discipline, product roadmaps and developer engagement to assess whether Reality Labs can narrow its losses in 2026.