Meta Raises 2025 Capex to $70–72B While Q3 Margin Falls to 40%
Meta's Q3 revenue rose 26% year over year to $51.2 billion, but costs climbed 32%, reducing operating margin to 40% and decreasing free cash flow to $10.6 billion from $15.5 billion. The company now expects full-year capex of $70–72 billion and foresees faster 2026 AI-related spending growth.
1. Third-Quarter Financial Performance Underscores Robust Growth
Meta reported Q3 revenue of $51.2 billion, up 26% year over year and accelerating from 16% in Q1 and 22% in Q2 2025. Advertising accounted for 98% of total revenue, supported by a 14% increase in ad impressions and a 10% rise in average price per ad. Total daily active users climbed 8% to more than 3.5 billion. Operating income reached $20.5 billion (an 18% increase), while operating margin narrowed to 40% from 43% a year earlier as costs rose faster than sales.
2. AI Infrastructure Spending Weighs on Cash Flow and Margins
Meta’s costs and expenses jumped 32% year over year in Q3, driven by a heavy investment cycle in AI-capable data centers. Capital expenditures totaled $19.4 billion for the quarter, contributing to free cash flow of $10.6 billion, down from $15.5 billion a year ago. CFO Susan Li guided that 2025 capex would reach $70 billion to $72 billion and that absolute capex growth and total expenses will grow at a significantly faster rate in 2026 as Meta scales its AI infrastructure further.
3. Valuation and Analyst Optimism Point to Upside
Despite 26% revenue growth and a strong net cash position (approximately $44.5 billion of cash and equivalents versus $29 billion of long-term debt), Meta shares trade at 22 times forward earnings—a discount to peers. One leading strategist reiterated a buy rating with a $910 price target, implying more than 40% upside from current levels. Investors are weighing near-term cash-flow compression against long-term AI opportunity and core advertising momentum.
4. Global Suspension of Teen Access to AI Characters
Meta announced it will suspend teenage users from accessing its existing AI characters across all apps worldwide while it develops a new, age-appropriate iteration. The update follows parental feedback requesting greater control and transparency over teens’ interactions with AI. When relaunched, AI characters for under-18s will include customizable parental controls and be limited to educational and hobby-related topics.