Methanex Q4 EBITDA $186M, $11M Loss, Q1 Pricing $330–$340 as Middle East Disruption

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Methanex posted Q4 Adjusted EBITDA of $186 million on 2.4 million tons at a realized price of $331 per ton, with a net loss of $11 million. Guidance for Q1 pricing is $330–$340 and Middle East disruptions have pushed spot prices above $300 in China and near $400 in Europe.

1. Q4 Financial Results

Methanex delivered Q4 Adjusted EBITDA of $186 million on 2.4 million tons sold at a realized price of $331 per ton, resulting in an adjusted net loss of $11 million. Lower average realized pricing and immediate fixed cost recognition from plant outages drove the earnings decline versus Q3.

2. Supply Disruptions and Price Impact

Recent escalation in the Middle East has materially reduced Iranian and regional methanol exports, lifting spot prices above $300 per ton in China and near $400 per ton in Europe. Management noted that reduced supply reliability could further tighten global inventories and influence customer operations.

3. Operational Update

Production increased quarter-over-quarter across key assets despite an unplanned outage at Beaumont and a planned catalyst replacement at Natgasoline. Geismar plants ran stably, Chile operations resumed full rates post-turnaround, and Egypt and New Zealand facilities navigated gas availability constraints to sustain output.

4. 2026 Guidance and Priorities

Methanex targets roughly 9 million tons of equity production in 2026 and aims to capture $30 million of OCI-integration synergies by year-end. The company ended 2025 with $425 million in cash and is directing all free cash flow to Term Loan A repayment against its ~$300 million balance.

Sources

FZ