Mexico says 1.5% GDP growth secure unless economy shrinks in second half

The government's optimism follows a sharp rebound in the second quarter. Mexico's economy grew by 1.5% from the previous three months — its fastest pace since late 2020 — after contracting by 0.6% in the first quarter, according to data from statistics agency INEGI published on Thursday.

Compared with the same quarter last year, the Mexican economy expanded by 2.2% in the April-to-June period, INEGI said.

Mariscal said the 1.5% figure represents a "growth base" and pointed to strong performance in construction and automotive manufacturing. He added that the second-quarter momentum "offers at least an indication of growth for the remainder of the year."

Even if the economy recorded zero growth in both the third and fourth quarters, he noted, the full-year GDP expansion would still reach 1.5% due to activity in the first half of the year.

The ministry also kept its forecast of inflation ending 2026 at 3.7%.

Mexico's finance ministry on Thursday maintained its 2026 economic growth forecast at 1.8% to 2.8%, saying the economy would have to contract in the second half of the year to miss a baseline of 1.5% growth.

"To have growth lower than 1.5%, there would have to be a contraction in the third and fourth quarters," the head of the Economic Planning Unit, Rodrigo Mariscal, said during a quarterly report presentation.