Microsoft Under Italy Antitrust Probe Over AI Pricing Hikes; Shares 34% Below Highs
MSFT•Microsoft faces an Italian antitrust probe over undisclosed AI‐related price hikes for Microsoft 365 subscriptions with Copilot and Designer, risking fines or forced subscription changes. AI business hit $37 billion run rate (+123%) as planned $190 billion capex and shares 34% below 52-week highs underscore downside risk mirroring S&P drawdowns.
1. Italian Antitrust Investigation
Italy’s competition authority opened a probe into Microsoft Ireland Operations and Microsoft over alleged unfair commercial practices in Microsoft 365. The investigation focuses on whether customers were adequately informed about integration of AI services Copilot and Designer before subscription prices increased and whether default plan upgrades violated withdrawal rights.
2. AI Growth, Capex, and Stock Vulnerability
Microsoft’s AI unit surpassed a $37 billion annual run rate, up 123%, while the Microsoft Cloud segment generated over $54 billion in quarterly revenue. Despite this growth, the company plans roughly $190 billion in capital expenditures for 2026 and its shares trade 34% below 52-week highs, reflecting downside risks comparable to S&P 500 drawdowns.
